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Published: 9 June 2025,06:54
Chart The Market
USD/JPY, H4:
USD/JPY continues to trade within a corrective rebound structure, failing to clear the descending trendline resistance drawn from the late April highs. Price action briefly tested the 144.90 zone before retreating, leaving a long wick and signaling fading upside conviction. The pair remains supported above 143.80, but repeated rejections from the trendline.
This technical hesitation comes despite a modest bullish run from the 142.50 support area, a level that has repeatedly acted as a demand zone. Still, the inability to break the confluence of dynamic and horizontal resistance casts doubt on the sustainability of the move higher.
Momentum indicators are offering mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just under 58, maintaining a mild bullish stance but flattening after approaching overbought territory. This plateau suggests momentum is stalling rather than strengthening. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows positive momentum, but the MACD line has started to converge with the signal line—a possible precursor to a bearish crossover if upward thrust continues to weaken.
From a structural perspective, USD/JPY is at a critical inflection point. A confirmed break above the descending trendline and 146.10 resistance could open the door toward the next upside target near 148.10. Conversely, failure to overcome this resistance band raises the likelihood of a retracement toward initial support at 143.80, with a deeper move possibly revisiting the 142.50 floor. How price reacts around the descending trendline in the coming sessions will be key in determining whether this rebound extends or stalls into another leg lower.
Resistance Levels: 146.10, 148.10
Support Levels: 143.80, 140.30
AUD/USD, H4
AUD/USD continues to trade within a constructive ascending structure, pressing against the upper boundary of a developing symmetrical triangle just beneath the 0.6526 resistance level. Price remains supported by a rising trendline from late May, with successive higher lows underscoring the underlying bullish tone. Despite recent intraday volatility, the pair has maintained composure above 0.6485, reinforcing the broader upward trajectory.
This price behavior follows a sustained rebound from the 0.6455 and 0.6410 support zones, where buyers repeatedly defended dips and established a short-term base. The coiling pattern now evident on the chart suggests a potential breakout scenario as price compresses toward the apex of the triangle.
Momentum indicators remain moderately constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 61, reflecting strengthening bullish bias while still staying well below overbought territory. This suggests further upside room should a breakout materialize. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has turned marginally positive, and although the MACD line remains close to the signal line, it is tilting upward—signaling a possible bullish crossover in the near term.
From a structural standpoint, AUD/USD is approaching a decision point. A confirmed breakout above 0.6526 could ignite renewed bullish momentum and target the next resistance zone around 0.6570. Conversely, a break below the rising trendline and triangle base near 0.6485 would undermine the bullish setup, with downside risks extending toward 0.6455 and 0.6410. Price action in the coming sessions will be pivotal in determining whether AUD/USD can sustain its upward path or revert back into broader consolidation.
Resistance Levels: 0.6526, 0.6570
Support Levels: 0.6485, 0.6455
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